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by Diego Vasquez
Media Life
Mar 8, 2007
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Lots of folks already watch shows when they want
Six weeks ago, Microsoft’s Bill Gates struck fear in broadcast and cable executives when he suggested in a speech that within five years, viewers would abandon traditional television for internet protocol TV and other methods that allow them to set their own schedules. Gates may have been overly optimistic in setting that time frame, but he’s essentially right, according to a new report from Solutions Research Group’s Digital Life America, which conducts consumer trend studies for the Toronto research firm. It finds that not only are a large number of consumers, especially young ones, already time-shifting television through tools like online downloads, digital video recorders and video on demand, but that within 10 years, this could be the norm rather than the exception. According to DLA, a quarter of Americans over age 12 have streamed full TV shows, 10 percent currently have a show stored on their computer, and 24 percent have shows on a mobile video device. DVRs are in 17 percent of households, and 15 percent of households use video on demand. These consumers say by an overwhelming margin that being able to control when and where they watch these shows enhances their enjoyment of television. Kaan Yigit, study director for DLA, talks to Media Life about who time shifts, who’ll be soon to follow, and why men do it more than women.
Will we ever reach a time when time-shifted viewing outweighs TV watched in regular timeslots?
In about 10 years the term “regular timeslots” will cease to have meaning for most pre-packaged content. And we need to increasingly think video content and not just TV.
There is no schedule for all the content at iTunes, everything there is available to anyone at anytime. Same thing holds true with Joost (now in beta testing) or the new BitTorrent. So we need to start thinking in terms of release dates for content as opposed to a rigid schedule.
This said, there are exceptions--live events, in particular sports, for example. And to some extent, our lives have a scheduled rhythm, so schedules will not completely disappear but will become less important or significant.
You found that half of young people ages 20-29 have used time-shifted viewing. When will we see similar saturation among older people?
There is a lag but still sooner than we think-- under five years. However, linear TV and time-shifted viewing (both online and on cable) will co-exist for quite a while to come for older demos.
Once something becomes a no-brainer, older demos adopt and adapt. Look at mobile phones, digital cameras and DVD players, all initially the domain of the under-35 age groups. The online video explosion is driven by ease of use-- you can stream anything on any PC without the need for special software or skills now, a big change from a few years ago where only the 17-year old geeks could do video online.
Which method of time-shifted viewing (DVR, computer streaming, mobile or VOD) is growing fastest? Which has the most potential longer term?
Without a doubt, online/PC streaming is growing the fastest. It’s so easy and accessible now. And all kinds of big media are jumping in. Just this Monday The New York Times started promoting video content on its site. So video is not just for TV broadcasters anymore.
Of course, user-generated video is old news. Mobile is the slowest, notwithstanding the sex appeal of Apple’s video-capable iPhone or Verizon V-Cast and the like. DVRs and VOD are somewhere in between.
More men than women employ time-shifted viewing. Why is that?
Twenty-nine percent of men and 21 percent women streamed TV content (30 minutes or longer) online. The gap is not huge but it’s there.
But DVR use is fairly close. Arguably, there is somewhat more male-skewing content available at the moment online, and sports is a big one--March Madness coming up, for example.
And men tend to still be a bit more inclined to spend time with video content overall on the internet.
You found that a majority of DVR viewers said delayed viewing enhanced their viewing pleasure. Why is this?
Most cable companies find that churn rates go down for households with DVRs and those who use VOD. We live in a culture of acute time poverty; given a choice between time and money, 40 percent of Americans choose time in our research.
Time-shifting via DVRs (and to a lesser extent VOD) saves us time when we fast forward or allow ourselves to enjoy the experience at our convenience, not that of an arbitrary schedule. And we as consumers like control.
Fifty-two percent of DVR owners say they “always” skip commercials. Is this number rising or falling, and why? Should media buyers and planners be worrying about this?
We will track to see if the number will shift over time. Many people skip commercials not because they inherently dislike them but more to reclaim 10 minutes of their lives in a 60-minute segment. And other times, people skip irrelevant bits while keeping an eye on categories that they are interested in when fast forwarding.
However, if my target is 18-49 with an active or busy lifestyle, I would worry as they would be both more likely to have a DVR and more likely to put a premium on their time and therefore skip at least some of the commercials.
What types of programs are most likely to be watched on a delayed basis (news, dramas, comedies, etc.)?
The biggest DVR recording category in our research is 60-minute shows: primetime dramas, reality shows and the like that continue week to week followed by sitcoms and movies. News and sportscasts are least likely to be DVR’d, and sports events are somewhere in between.
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